What do you think the 2010's price will be in the spring

[Wes Woodin]

What do you think the 2010's price will be in the spring:thumbsup:

[krony506]

I think that would depend on how many are left and how many they did make. All I know is that I would never pay retail.

[tim507]

Same price........

[Wes Woodin]

Same price........

no way!

[mediumfast]

What you can get it for will depend on a lot of different things. The manufacturers aren't going to be making as many bikes as they have in the past. Everybody thinking they will be giving these things away in six months is mistaken. I believe the Japanese will adjust to new market conditions quickly.

[Numba68]

I think they will be the same price up here at 10,450OTD as my local dealer quoted me a few weeks ago.

[twenty34]

What you can get it for will depend on a lot of different things. The manufacturers aren't going to be making as many bikes as they have in the past. Everybody thinking they will be giving these things away in six months is mistaken. I believe the Japanese will adjust to new market conditions quickly.

So you are suggesting they aren't interested in making money then? You need product to make money.

It's very simple, if there's demand, they make more bikes, if not, they don't but I wouldn't get hung up on the dealer rhetoric about they are ONLY getting one bike in, etc, etc, blah, blah and that you better hurry down there so they can make 2-3K off you on an 8K bike. At 8K, they make a pretty hefty profit as it stands. Any more, you are just making them smile right to the bank based on impatience. But if it works for you, knock your socks off.

Last year the new 09 Honda was selling for 8-9K (very similar to the new YZ's). It was a revolutionary bike and still is. Now, for 6-7k you can get the same bike, just a year later. Anyone buying 09's now are getting killer deals on some great bikes! I'd wait to 2010 to buy a current year bike.

[grayracer513]

There are three kinds of people, apart from the custodial staff, that you can talk to at a dealer: the service techs, who don't know what's really going on with new bike deliveries, mostly because unless it's their bike, they don't care, and most of them don't like most of the people in sales anyway; the parts guys who don't know because, barring the few exceptionally good ones, most of them don't know very much of anything; and the people in the sales department.

This last group is interested in you for one reason; they want you to buy as many motorcycles from them right now as they can talk you into, and they want you to pay as much for each of them as they get from you. With that in mind, try to imagine them telling you that if you just wait a few months that they will happily lower the price to a point you're more comfortable with.

Sorry for the cynicism.

[twenty34]

And there are two types of customers - those that have good credit and can buy a bike the same day and those that have poor credit and no money.

The reality is this industry is littered with the latter so dealers can go on thinking they will sell everything in sight, but without credible buyer, they won't sell what they think they can.

Last time I walked into a dealer it was a ghost town and the guys working there were dusting the shelves. The industry has dealt a lot of unemployment.

[psmith85]

I think Mediumfast is close. The Japanese accountants are tired of throwing incentives at motorcycle sales just to keep the plants building bikes. Adjust production to closely match sales and your incentives costs decrease. Now from a dealers point of view, if I have a desirable product, give me one less bike than I have customers and I can sell the product for MSRP. Remember, Profit is not a dirty word.

[Wes Woodin]

It's true that more customers and less bikes will mean higher prices. I'm in the real estate market, and I have been hurting for 2 years now. Finally I believe it's turning around slowly. It will be back the way it was for the most part. I will also agree that the JAPS will be careful to not make too many, like they did with the 08-09's

[rickallen124]

So you are suggesting they aren't interested in making money then? You need product to make money.

It's very simple, if there's demand, they make more bikes, if not, they don't but I wouldn't get hung up on the dealer rhetoric about they are ONLY getting one bike in, etc, etc, blah, blah and that you better hurry down there so they can make 2-3K off you on an 8K bike. At 8K, they make a pretty hefty profit as it stands. Any more, you are just making them smile right to the bank based on impatience. But if it works for you, knock your socks off.

Last year the new 09 Honda was selling for 8-9K (very similar to the new YZ's). It was a revolutionary bike and still is. Now, for 6-7k you can get the same bike, just a year later. Anyone buying 09's now are getting killer deals on some great bikes! I'd wait to 2010 to buy a current year bike.

Rick, I don't think that honda could forsee the economic downturn that was coming when they planned their production numbers for '09. They just planned on what it had been for the last 5 yrs. The fact that mxa didn't give the bike a favorable review slowed sales even more leaving honda with lots of leftovers at a very discounted price. I'm sure that all of the manufactures have cut production for '10, some maybe by 50%. They are loosing tons of money having to rebate these bikes so heavily that they will make sure that it doesn't happen again. What will the price be in the spring? I think that the dealers that are charging well above msrp will be at or a couple hundred bellow msrp. Dealers that are selling bellow msrp to start with will have all of their bikes sold in most cases.

[twenty34]

Rick, I don't think that honda could forsee the economic downturn that was coming when they planned their production numbers for '09. They just planned on what it had been for the last 5 yrs. The fact that mxa didn't give the bike a favorable review slowed sales even more leaving honda with lots of leftovers at a very discounted price. I'm sure that all of the manufactures have cut production for '10, some maybe by 50%. They are loosing tons of money having to rebate these bikes so heavily that they will make sure that it doesn't happen again. What will the price be in the spring? I think that the dealers that are charging well above msrp will be at or a couple hundred bellow msrp. Dealers that are selling bellow msrp to start with will have all of their bikes sold in most cases.

Honda was not alone in 09/08.... All brands have available inventory.

Honda still outsells other brands by a pretty favorable number and I don't think that will be changing all that soon. Maybe some converts here and there, but in general, Honda will be moving bikes. Moreover, when I go to a track, there are lots of 09 Honda's, so there appears to be brand loyalty in their favor. Unless you are on the light side (me), most 09 Honda owners that I know love their bike and rightfully so. If you rode one, you'd see.

For all those that think manufactures will be going to JIT delivery of bikes, I doubt it. Not sure if it's because Christmas is around the corner, but dealers feel the need to gouge their customers even more these days. I would expect more to be out of business in the coming QTR's as well. If you believe the nonsense being spewed by many dealers, I feel sorry for those that buy into the rhetoric.

Again, brands still need to produce revenue, regardless of what margins the dealers are bringing in. I think the dealers are actually hurting overall revenue for these companies. The YZ's have been out there now for weeks and I don't see them running out of dealers other than a few here and there with deep pockets. Sad really.

To pay 8K for a dirt bike that requires ongoing maintenance is absurd, IMO....Unless you can afford it. Having visibility into data tells me that with unemployment reaching double digits, consumers inability to take on more debt, declining house prices and delinquencies on the rise, I'd say the average MX'r is screwed unless they are paying cash. The % of riders that go to a dealer to finance and are approved is actually quite low as they have poor credit.

I don't know many kids that have 8K sitting around so I highly doubt demand will exceed supply anytime soon, even though some dealers want you to believe otherwise. I think buying a street bike is looking more attractive as it requires minimal maintenance and will hold it's value far better.

[mediumfast]

Of course I'm not suggesting they don't want to make money. What I'm saying is the reason we are seeing such drastic price cuts on bikes right now is because bikes aren't selling the way they anticipated. Honda is the victim of two things right now with regard to the CRF450: 1) the economic down turn (people are buying fewer toys), 2) there are many painfully obvious flaws in the bike itself (which hurt sales too). I know my last sentence will give some people heartburn....get over it. When's was the last time Honda released a new model year bike (in the US) in February? Has the light gone on yet? Do you think they enjoy selling there product for thousands off the MSRP? Of course they are going to produce fewer bikes.

[l_campionero]

What do you think the 2010's price will be in the spring(?)

Now, how in the world can we possibly know that?

[twenty34]

What I'm saying is the reason we are seeing such drastic price cuts on bikes right now is because bikes aren't selling the way they anticipated. Honda is the victim of two things right now with regard to the CRF450: 1) the economic down turn (people are buying fewer toys), 2) there are many painfully obvious flaws in the bike itself (which hurt sales too). I know my last sentence will give some people heartburn....get over it. When's was the last time Honda released a new model year bike (in the US) in February? Has the light gone on yet? Do you think they enjoy selling there product for thousands off the MSRP? Of course they are going to produce fewer bikes.

Exactly...supply exceeded demand and as the law of supply and demand/price elasticity of demand suggests - as the price of x goes down, the demand goes up. This is what we are seeing with the 09's right now. The price point is for an 09 is much more favorable than a 2010 $7-9K bike. See below. Very fundamental stuff here. Demand was severed with the hit to the economy. But Honda wasn't the only company to be hit. Everyone was.

While bikes are considered luxury items, the fact remains - even if many wanted a bike, they may not have the means due so due to loss of job or poor credit for example. Have you seen the carnage in those Motor-home lots? You know, those big ones. They can't sell those except to the few that have lots of discretionary money or those that have good credit.

In short, while all may be producing fewer bikes, gouging customers by trying to increase their profits probably won't work, especially in a down economy. I've seen more 09 Honda and YZ's at the track in the last 2 months than I saw all of 09. Again, please view the demand curves below.

As price goes up, demand (qty) goes down. When prices decrease, demand increases. Simple concepts, but very powerful and accurate.

And here here a really nice interactive version to check out. This is pretty nice actually.

http://www.bized.co.uk/learn/economics/markets/mechanism/interactive/part1.htm

[rickallen124]

Rick, I agree that those dealers that are trying to gouge their customers are going to end up having to lower the price in order to move the bikes. The smart dealers are starting off with a low price so they don't have flooring costs etc on a bike just sitting on the floor. Right now those left over '09 bikes are the best deal available dollar for dollar.

[twenty34]

Rick, I agree that those dealers that are trying to gouge their customers are going to end up having to lower the price in order to move the bikes.

Yup, they will come up with every story on how they are gonna sell out, this is the best bike since the invention of the MX bike....you name it. You better get your name on this list...LOL

Same thing last year with the Honda. They were using every magazine review and writeup as fuel for their price gouging propaganda campaign. I don't know about you guys, but for these guys to easily make $2+ grand on a $7xxx bike just don't sit right. If they don't start adjusting their strategy, they will have some problems for sure.... We DO have options, but they never want you to believe that.

[Wes Woodin]

Now, how in the world can we possibly know that?

You can't dude! I wanted opinions! What do you think?

[mikedabike]

6K plus fees unless they severly under produced and dealers run out. I paid 5600 otd for my 04 in spring of 04 and 6k otd for my 07 otd in spring of 07. I stopped buying bikes when they first came out in the fall and I realized they didn't make me any fast and you pay a huge premium for being first on the block.