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2017 Monster Energy Preview: The Pack Part 2 continued…



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14 replies to this topic
  • Chris Cooksey
45 posts
Location: Nevada

Posted December 13, 2016 - 08:15 AM


FullSizeRender.jpg

 

This year is exceptionally exciting as more top riders changed teams or bikes than any other year in recent memory. As I continue my breakdown of riders in “The Pack” I will admit math was never my specialty, and it doesn't take a genius to see I have almost 20 riders featured as top 10 contenders. Bad math calculations or not, some heavy hitters will be on the outside looking in this season.

Blake Baggett, from what I hear, has been the fastest KTM during the offseason. Yes, faster than Dungey and Marvin! He seems to enjoy his new bike. I don't think this will translate to a title contender or even winning races, but I do think he will give other riders in 4th through 10th trouble. Also, don't be afraid to add him to your fantasy SX lineup at A1 as I imagine he will have a good handicap and might end up being a double pointer (using Motocross Fantasy). Baggett is my breakout pick for 2017, and yes he wears Fly Racing gear!

Davi Millsaps, another Fly rider, will be entering his second year with the Butler Brothers KTM Team. He will be fast, but with extended main events he will also need focus on his fitness. Davi lost a kidney in 2010 and while I am not a doctor it seems like he is sick more than other riders. If he has his health dialed in he could easily be a podium contender, so if you have a cold or the flu please avoid Davi!!

Next on my list is Malcom Stewart, while I have no idea what or who he will be riding for, I am sure he will not back down or give an inch. Malcom believes he is a top guy and will not be bullied by veterans like Barcia (Barcia slammed him hard in Geneva, but Malcom gave it right back). If I knew his program I would love to say he could contend for podiums. All I know is if he lines up, it will be exciting.

Dean Wilson has been plagued with injuries during his 450 career and has not produced the results expected from him. This left him searching for a team during the off season. Nothing has been officially announced, but it looks like he will be with Factory Yamaha. I expect him to be inside the top 10 and finish ahead of many riders who got the rides he was looking for. This is a career defining year for Deano, if he gets hurt or has poor results this could be the end of his shot at big time racing.

One of the most controversial riders on the list is Justin Barcia. While he is still with the JGR Team, they have switched to Suzuki’s. Rumor has it they took less money to ride the yellow bike due to lack of support from Factory Yamaha, along with Factory Yamaha stealing Cooper Webb. Barcia has looked less than spectacular during the offseason races at Geneva and Lille (Bercy). I heard he looked great at the JGR test track but his results were below average which I normally use as a gauge to determine how he will ride this year. During the WPS/Alpinestar launch he told me a story about literally having to break out of the hospital a couple years ago after he crashed and Tomac landed on his head. He laughed while telling the story but I got the feeling he never wants to see the inside of a hospital overseas again. This leads me to believe he rode smart and conservative (other than trying to kill Mookie with a block pass). Also Brayton is really fast on tight tracks, Marvin had a full Factory bike and Mookie had nothing to lose and everything to prove. Barcia will be a 5th to 10th place guy unless he has a breakout ride and gets confidence.

The other JGR 450 rider, who also happens to wear Fly Racing gear, is Westin and by default I am pulling for him. He will be top 5 and have a few shots at podiums. Last year his season was derailed after beating the hell out of Friese at A1. Neither Westin nor the team, admitted anything about a hand injury from punching Friese’s helmet but as an avid MMA fan I don't see how those punches didn’t cause a hand injury. I think he tried riding through the injury and never got back to the speed he showed in 2015. As a Fly Rider I would love to see him get up and fight (not literally) at the front and a podium spot. He is familiar with the Suzuki, as he rode one a few years ago and they haven't exactly changed much, so I don't expect any trouble adapting to the yellow bike.

Justin Bogle is debuting on the RCH Suzuki team that came dangerously close to folding. I don’t think much of Bogle as a 450 rider, so I don't expect anything from him. Maybe some hole shots and a few cool whips with leg swag but he will be lucky to finish inside the top ten. I don't understand why his services were so coveted during the offseason. He did overplay his hand and barely ended up having a ride at all. Cool whips as he wins a couple semi’s but that will be his biggest highlight.

This is it for the pack, all these riders have major team support except Stewart. I don't want to call this the most stacked field ever, because Feld says that every year, but if most of these riders stay healthy…Damn! Next up is outside the top ten, riders who hope to make Main events.

 

 

In case you missed it:

 

Part II

http://www.thumperta...art-2-the-pack/

 

Part 1

http://www.thumperta...hip-contenders/


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  • BLSJDS

    TT Silver Member

748 posts
Location: New York

Posted December 13, 2016 - 11:32 AM


I like Weston Peick too, but I don't think there is any way he'll be in the top 5 in points this year.  He'll be hard pressed to get top 5 in any race IMHO; the field is too deep.

 

I agree re: Baggett - I hope he does really well this year.


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  • redrider144
6,535 posts
Location: Kansas

Posted December 13, 2016 - 02:34 PM


This group doesn't excite me all that much.

I suppose there is some enjoyment of seeing Peick beat Barcia....

  • Chris Cooksey
45 posts
Location: Nevada

Posted December 13, 2016 - 03:05 PM


This group doesn't excite me all that much.
I suppose there is some enjoyment of seeing Peick beat Barcia....


I said Baggett wouldn't be a title contender, but I wouldn't be shocked if he does as good as Marvin last year.

  • Chris Cooksey
45 posts
Location: Nevada

Posted December 13, 2016 - 03:11 PM


Would anyone like a story from a privateer view? Bracken Hall is preparing for this season in Mesquite(where I ride). It would be very easy to get interviews and updates from him this season. I could let you know the struggles of competing on the highest level and the struggles he faces as a privateer. I told him I would do it if he gave me total access, the good, the bad and ugly. Interesting or not?

  • Havingfun

    TT Addict

3,582 posts
Location: Michigan
Garage View Garage

Posted December 13, 2016 - 03:57 PM


Would anyone like a story from a privateer view? Bracken Hall is preparing for this season in Mesquite(where I ride). It would be very easy to get interviews and updates from him this season. I could let you know the struggles of competing on the highest level and the struggles he faces as a privateer. I told him I would do it if he gave me total access, the good, the bad and ugly. Interesting or not?

sure I enjoy it.. go for it.



  • redrider144
6,535 posts
Location: Kansas

Posted December 13, 2016 - 04:01 PM


Sure, that could be interesting.

  • OUTERLIMITS

    Get Help Now

5,025 posts
Location: California

Posted December 13, 2016 - 04:40 PM


I like Weston Peick too, but I don't think there is any way he'll be in the top 5 in points this year.  He'll be hard pressed to get top 5 in any race IMHO; the field is too deep.

 

I agree re: Baggett - I hope he does really well this year.

Peick will be lucky to get top 10 at the end of the season.  Hopefully he will at least tangle with Anderson, pull his dangling shirt tail over his head and beat the crap out of him. 



  • Daniel_Likes_Bikes

    TT Member

30 posts
Location: Ohio
Garage View Garage

Posted December 13, 2016 - 05:19 PM


Would anyone like a story from a privateer view? Bracken Hall is preparing for this season in Mesquite(where I ride). It would be very easy to get interviews and updates from him this season. I could let you know the struggles of competing on the highest level and the struggles he faces as a privateer. I told him I would do it if he gave me total access, the good, the bad and ugly. Interesting or not?

I'd like it.



  • BLSJDS

    TT Silver Member

748 posts
Location: New York

Posted December 13, 2016 - 06:02 PM


Would anyone like a story from a privateer view? Bracken Hall is preparing for this season in Mesquite(where I ride). It would be very easy to get interviews and updates from him this season. I could let you know the struggles of competing on the highest level and the struggles he faces as a privateer. I told him I would do it if he gave me total access, the good, the bad and ugly. Interesting or not?

Yes - I'd be interested in that  :thumbsup:



  • M1Garand

    TT Bronze Member

469 posts
Location: California

Posted December 13, 2016 - 06:39 PM


Would anyone like a story from a privateer view? Bracken Hall is preparing for this season in Mesquite(where I ride). It would be very easy to get interviews and updates from him this season. I could let you know the struggles of competing on the highest level and the struggles he faces as a privateer. I told him I would do it if he gave me total access, the good, the bad and ugly. Interesting or not?

I wish their were more stories of privateers.
Instead of reading about who is the biggest baller, it would be interesting and refreshing to hear from these guys in the trenches.
I think there are a lot of good stories that are not being told and it's a shame.
Also pics and/or videos so we can put a face on those guys. :thumbsup

  • jcm3

    TT Titanium Member

2,648 posts
Location: California

Posted December 13, 2016 - 06:44 PM


I'd be surprised if it turns out other than what most expect.  Wins will probably be distributed between mostly Dungey and Roczen, maybe a few between Tomac, Anderson (with a Canard wildcard), with some good finishes by Musquin, Webb, Barcia and Seeley.

 

We'll see these guys rounding out the top 10 most races:  Reed, Baggett, Brayton, Barcia, Bogle, Millsaps, Tickle

 

I personally think it's Roczen's to lose, but his knock has always been staying on two wheels the entire season.  In the MEC, he crashed in one out of the three races, so all he has to do is do that once in the season and he'll have a hard time beating Dungey for the title if Dungey rides the way he has the last few years.

 

Tomac looks better as he's gotten time on the bike, and Anderson can win races when he keeps both feet on the pegs.

 

I haven't seen Canard or Baggett on their new bikes, but Baggett is usually more of a threat outdoors than in.

 

I think it will be a more competitive season that they have been, but I hope that's the case every year and it rarely is.  :facepalm:   It will also depend on who is standing at the end of the season.



  • BLSJDS

    TT Silver Member

748 posts
Location: New York

Posted December 13, 2016 - 06:56 PM


I'd be surprised if it turns out other than what most expect.  Wins will probably be distributed between mostly Dungey and Roczen, maybe a few between Tomac, Anderson (with a Canard wildcard), with some good finishes by Musquin, Webb, Barcia and Seeley.

 

We'll see these guys rounding out the top 10 most races:  Reed, Baggett, Brayton, Barcia, Bogle, Millsaps, Tickle

 

I personally think it's Roczen's to lose, but his knock has always been staying on two wheels the entire season.  In the MEC, he crashed in one out of the three races, so all he has to do is do that once in the season and he'll have a hard time beating Dungey for the title if Dungey rides the way he has the last few years.

 

Tomac looks better as he's gotten time on the bike, and Anderson can win races when he keeps both feet on the pegs.

 

I haven't seen Canard or Baggett on their new bikes, but Baggett is usually more of a threat outdoors than in.

 

I think it will be a more competitive season that they have been, but I hope that's the case every year and it rarely is.  :facepalm:   It will also depend on who is standing at the end of the season.

 

That's for sure.  Many of the last several seasons have started out with stacked fields only to be cut down by injuries shortly thereafter.  A1 will be interesting for sure!



  • Cigaro

    TT Silver Member

846 posts
Location: Illinois

Posted December 14, 2016 - 10:33 AM


Blake Baggett, from what I hear, has been the fastest KTM during the offseason. Yes, faster than Dungey and Marvin! 

 

 

 

Was this kid your source?

 

 

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  • Spooge

    TT Bronze Member

365 posts
Location: Arizona
Garage View Garage

Posted December 26, 2016 - 04:06 PM


Hey Chris,

Thanks for these posts regarding the 2017 Supercross season.  

We all have our favorites, but I think your info/predictions are pretty much spot on.

I look forward to watching it all unfold.







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