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Supercross Preview 2017 Part 2: The Pack

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  • Chris Cooksey
45 posts
Location: Nevada

Posted December 05, 2016 - 04:08 PM


Supercross Preview 2017
Part 2: The Pack

 

IMG_2074.png

In Part 1 of my Monster Energy Supercross preview I broke down the guys who are contenders for the championship title. In Part 2: The Pack, I’m going to break down the guys who can win races and podium, but won’t put it together for the entire season. I’m talking about; Cole Seely, Jason Anderson, Chad Reed, Cooper Webb, and Trey Canard.

Starting with Cole Seely, now I did take some grief from my buddy Mike Sidner (former Honda Race Team employee) for not considering Cole as a title contender. If Seely steps up and happens to be in contention for the title I wouldn't be shocked, but he has never won a major championship. While he shows speed, wins races and at times is poetry on a dirt bike, for whatever his reasons he can’t stay consistent. I have no reason to believe 2017 will be any different and expect Seely to contend for race wins here and there, hovering between 3rd and 6th all year.

Next I am going back to the Bakery with Jason Anderson. He has proven he can run with absolutely anyone in the world but showed a lack of maturity during his 450 career. While he wins races, he also has a tendency to get involved in stupid race or practice antics (https://m.youtube.co...h?v=9bsJKGjfnQo, https://m.youtube.co...v=aRHvHG3vTP8). Even though all the blame doesn’t fall on Anderson, he will need to learn how to rise above the drama if he wants to win a 450 title. He is also coming off a serious head injury sustained at the MX of Nations. This year he might win a race or two but with his track enemies and the drama he finds himself in, I expect him to finish between 5th and 10th in the points standings.

Now to a guy who wins races, including multiple titles; Chad Reed! The worst thing his competitors can do is let him hang around till the end of races. In the history of Supercross no rider has been better at closing the deal than Chad. He has an incredible belief in himself and never misses a chance to win with a few laps remaining, but Father Time is undefeated and is catching up to Mr. Reed. This year though, I look for Reed to be the top Yamaha rider and a consistent podium finisher.

Cooper Webb is the most hyped rider coming into this season with Yamaha so high on this kid that they stole him from their former satellite team JGR (which was the straw that broke the back and forced JGR to switch to Suzuki). Many people are calling Webb “Beast from the East 2.” Unlike Damon Bradshaw, Webb won't win during his rookie 450 season. Webb will have the speed to win races but I don't think he will. The Yamaha 450 is a tough bike to ride and is not forgiving, just ask the guys at JGR. While he will lead laps, he won't be able to bully the competition like he did in the 250 class. I look for a few podiums, but mostly 5th – 10th place finishes unless a few title contenders have issues. This year is very important for Webb’s career he needs to gain experience while surviving an entire 16 race series. Dungey may retire in the next few years, but if Webb wants to be “the guy” he will have to close the gap between himself and the other title contenders. He needs this season to find out exactly where he is and what it takes to be the best Supercross rider in the world.

Trey Canard, I have a hard time being objective when analyzing him. Full disclosure, he is our flagship rider at Fly Racing (owned by WPS, my employer). With Andrew Short retiring we are looking for Trey to pick up the slack. Trey left Honda, where he has spent his entire professional career. I was surprised to see him sign with KTM because early off season rumors had him signing with Kawasaki. I was told KTM’s (Roger DeCoster) decision to choose Trey as their third rider was based on Aldon Baker’s analysis. They looked at film from his years at Factory Connection Honda and analyzed his riding style changes resulting from multiple major injuries sustained during his 450 career. Aldon told Roger he could fix him and on his advice they took a chance. Meanwhile nobody informed Dungey of the plan. Dungey was less than thrilled with this idea as he already has Marvin Musquin and Jason Anderson on his heels. Rumor has it that Dungey vetoed the idea of training alongside Trey. Dungey told Aldon if a rider was needed to fulfill his partnership with KTM and Husqvarna then he should get a 250 rider. As a fan I want to put Trey as a title contender but looking at him objectively I see him as a 3rd to 8th place guy, as long as he can keep it on two wheels and stay healthy. I would be thrilled to be wrong with my analysis but I haven't seen or heard anything to make me think any different… And I looked hard!

With so many riders in “the pack” more will be discussed in the next preview. What riders do you think will make it?


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  • redrider144
6,535 posts
Location: Kansas

Posted December 05, 2016 - 04:15 PM


Seely - seems like Bowman said he could be a contender on the new Honda.

Anderson - too crashy, plus Squid likes him which automatically knocks him down a notch.

Reed - so smooth, so in control. Might get some wins. His body is made out of pure grit.

Webb - rookie, will probably bang bars with Barcia.

Canard - complete unknown. Maybe he gels with the KTM. Interesting that Dungey sees him as a threat.

This group is much more interesting than part 1. I would probably have placed Barcia in this group.

Edited by redrider144, December 05, 2016 - 04:16 PM.

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  • redrider144
6,535 posts
Location: Kansas

Posted December 05, 2016 - 04:20 PM


Is Trey going to train with Aldon at all? Separately from Dungey I assume?

Edited by redrider144, December 05, 2016 - 04:20 PM.


  • Chris Cooksey
45 posts
Location: Nevada

Posted December 05, 2016 - 04:25 PM


Is Trey going to train with Aldon at all? Separately from Dungey I assume?


No, he is with Timmy Ferry.

  • Chris Cooksey
45 posts
Location: Nevada

Posted December 05, 2016 - 04:27 PM


Seely - seems like Bowman said he could be a contender on the new Honda.
Anderson - too crashy, plus Squid likes him which automatically knocks him down a notch.
Reed - so smooth, so in control. Might get some wins. His body is made out of pure grit.
Webb - rookie, will probably bang bars with Barcia.
Canard - complete unknown. Maybe he gels with the KTM. Interesting that Dungey sees him as a threat.
This group is much more interesting than part 1. I would probably have placed Barcia in this group.


This is the first part of group two, so many riders in this group I had to break it up..

  • redrider144
6,535 posts
Location: Kansas

Posted December 05, 2016 - 04:29 PM


No, he is with Timmy Ferry.


Hmm. So Roger signed Trey based on Aldon pledging to "fix" him, then Dungey veteoed it afterwards. Roger can't be too happy about that. Either way Trey gets a fresh start.

Not sure what to make of the Dungey veto.

  • redrider144
6,535 posts
Location: Kansas

Posted December 05, 2016 - 04:41 PM


At the very least we should all agree that Anderson will finish behind Reed in points.

  • GBowman

    TT Addict

3,789 posts
Location: Cambodia

Posted December 05, 2016 - 04:57 PM


Hmm. So Roger signed Trey based on Aldon pledging to "fix" him, then Dungey veteoed it afterwards. Roger can't be too happy about that. Either way Trey gets a fresh start.

Not sure what to make of the Dungey veto.

No, Trey was never going to leave Ferry, those two work great together. From everything I hear the Dungey veto never happened because Trey never wanted there . 

 

Trey went to Decoster because he wanted on that team and took a lot less money than he was offered elsewhere .  


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  • redrider144
6,535 posts
Location: Kansas

Posted December 05, 2016 - 05:19 PM


No, Trey was never going to leave Ferry, those two work great together. From everything I hear the Dungey veto never happened because Trey never wanted there .

Trey went to Decoster because he wanted on that team and took a lot less money than he was offered elsewhere .


Ok, that makes more sense and is an easier pill to swallow.

  • redrider144
6,535 posts
Location: Kansas

Posted December 05, 2016 - 05:37 PM


Anderson is really at the bottom of this group. Any chance of moving him to group 5 or 6? I'm thinking he's behind Alessi.
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  • GoRide2

    TT Gold Member

1,259 posts
Location: California

Posted December 05, 2016 - 06:29 PM


Dungey is such a diva. Always has been



  • Fryboy
9,567 posts
Location: California
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Posted December 05, 2016 - 07:16 PM


Anderson is really at the bottom of this group. Any chance of moving him to group 5 or 6? I'm thinking he's behind Alessi.

 

Squid bait  :smirk:  



  • Biff Barf

    TT Member

62 posts
Location: Washington

Posted December 05, 2016 - 07:16 PM


SX mains going 20 minute plus 2 laps is really going to hurt James Stewart's chances of another SX title .
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  • Chaconne

    TT Addict

3,541 posts
Location: Massachusetts

Posted December 05, 2016 - 07:17 PM


Anderson is really at the bottom of this group. Any chance of moving him to group 5 or 6? I'm thinking he's behind Alessi.

Well I lost a bet to squidy last year going against Anderson vs Tomac in SX. If Anderson is healthy he can mow down anybody in the field except for Dung and Roc. He mowed down Tomac more than once and Tomac had no answer and my view is that Barcia and Canard aren't in his class and he is so deep into Seely's head after destroying him in 250s, that Seely will back off in a heartbeat. I still don't like Anderson, but that dude can ride SX at least, & squidy is right about this. And if that Yam is so hard to ride why did old man Reed beat everybody but the top 4... Crashnard??? come on KTM has their very own JS7 style lawn dart now, I should have bet squidy when Trey was his boy... :ride: Dungey was probably afraid of having Carnard crash him out in practice... :lol:  :lol:  :lol:


Edited by Chaconne, December 05, 2016 - 07:19 PM.


  • redrider144
6,535 posts
Location: Kansas

Posted December 05, 2016 - 07:40 PM


Well I lost a bet to squidy last year going against Anderson vs Tomac in SX. If Anderson is healthy he can mow down anybody in the field except for Dung and Roc. He mowed down Tomac more than once and Tomac had no answer and my view is that Barcia and Canard aren't in his class and he is so deep into Seely's head after destroying him in 250s, that Seely will back off in a heartbeat. I still don't like Anderson, but that dude can ride SX at least, & squidy is right about this. And if that Yam is so hard to ride why did old man Reed beat everybody but the top 4... Crashnard??? come on KTM has their very own JS7 style lawn dart now, I should have bet squidy when Trey was his boy... :ride: Dungey was probably afraid of having Carnard crash him out in practice... :lol:  :lol:  :lol:


Squid came close to suckering me into a Webb vs Anderson bet. Instead he suckered me into a Webb vs MooseCan bet. I wonder if I can sucker him into a Reed vs Canard bet?

  • Squid_Racer

    Get Help Now

13,500 posts
Location: California

Posted December 05, 2016 - 08:29 PM


No, Trey was never going to leave Ferry, those two work great together. From everything I hear the Dungey veto never happened because Trey never wanted there . 

 

Trey went to Decoster because he wanted on that team and took a lot less money than he was offered elsewhere .  

Trey has never been a greedy guy, I'm sure he knew about the new Honda but he wanted on the best bike. Not about the money for him.... 

 

Ok, that makes more sense and is an easier pill to swallow.

 

See above.... Roczen went for the money, Trey the best bike. 

Squid bait   :smirk:

Take a look at the posts in this thread Son, I own these fools, didn't even participate in part 1 and these guys are thinking more about me in part 2 than they are the guys Cooksey mentioned.... 

 

Well I lost a bet to squidy last year going against Anderson vs Tomac in SX. If Anderson is healthy he can mow down anybody in the field except for Dung and Roc. He mowed down Tomac more than once and Tomac had no answer and my view is that Barcia and Canard aren't in his class and he is so deep into Seely's head after destroying him in 250s, that Seely will back off in a heartbeat. I still don't like Anderson, but that dude can ride SX at least, & squidy is right about this. And if that Yam is so hard to ride why did old man Reed beat everybody but the top 4... Crashnard??? come on KTM has their very own JS7 style lawn dart now, I should have bet squidy when Trey was his boy... :ride: Dungey was probably afraid of having Carnard crash him out in practice... :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

I took the "underdog" on that one and still won. 

 

Mexican for dinner tonight, but I've been eating up these Yamasuckers for the last 5 days.... 25 pages in 5 days, 1 thread.... 

 

Squid came close to suckering me into a Webb vs Anderson bet. Instead he suckered me into a Webb vs MooseCan bet. I wonder if I can sucker him into a Reed vs Canard bet?

 

Do you really want to lose to me more than you already have? Our track records speak for themselves... 


Edited by Squid_Racer, December 05, 2016 - 08:31 PM.


  • OUTERLIMITS

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Location: California

Posted December 05, 2016 - 09:22 PM


Hmm. So Roger signed Trey based on Aldon pledging to "fix" him, then Dungey veteoed it afterwards. Roger can't be too happy about that. Either way Trey gets a fresh start.

Not sure what to make of the Dungey veto.

Why does Dungey get veto power?  



  • OUTERLIMITS

    Get Help Now

5,025 posts
Location: California

Posted December 05, 2016 - 09:24 PM


Anderson is really at the bottom of this group. Any chance of moving him to group 5 or 6? I'm thinking he's behind Alessi.

2nd the motion!



  • OUTERLIMITS

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Posted December 05, 2016 - 09:27 PM


Squid came close to suckering me into a Webb vs Anderson bet. Instead he suckered me into a Webb vs MooseCan bet. I wonder if I can sucker him into a Reed vs Canard bet?

I have that same bet with him.  I just want to see Webb and Anderson throw down this year.



  • Chris Cooksey
45 posts
Location: Nevada

Posted December 05, 2016 - 09:31 PM


Why does Dungey get veto power?


When you are the defending SX Champ and Aldon's top earner, he didn't have to "veto"(my words) but simply express concern is enough to get a "veto". As far as Trey and Timmy, they work great together except that Trey hasn't won much lately.





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